Offseason: O-Dawg, Catcher, Shortstop

Orlando Hudson

Geoff Baker mentions in his latest blog post that the Seattle Mariners may “take a look at” free agent 2B Orlando Hudson this offseason. This comes as no surprise considering the team’s reported interest in him last offseason, and that Jose Lopez doesn’t fit well with GM Jack Zduriencik and manager Don Wakamatsu’s plans. Hudson isn’t a star anymore, but he’d provide a small upgrade over Lopez and would allow Seattle to try and improve another position of need with Lopez.

A veteran catcher?

If I’m the Seattle Mariners I’m very comfortable going into 2010 with Adam Moore and Rob Johnson splitting time behind the plate, but it’s hard to know what Zduriencik wants to do. Zduriencik has hinted that he’s concerned with Moore’s inexperience and Johnson’s multiple offseason surgeries, and that a veteran backstop could be joining the team. Does that mean the Mariners are going to go after a free agent like Greg Zaun, or will they search for a Jaime Burke type in case of emergency? My gut points to the latter, but we’ll find out soon enough.

Jack Wilson versus the field

I still think that Jack Wilson is the Mariners shortstop for 2010, despite the idea among some fans that a trade for J.J. Hardy is inevitable and that Josh Wilson is a better option than Jack. I don’t like the idea of trading for Hardy, by the way, unless it’s a true buy low situation, and the reports and rumors hint that the Milwaukee Brewers are not to that point just yet. I don’t see the bat rebounding to his All Star levels, especially after a league change and transition to Safeco Field. I do like Jack though, especially if my (and others’) feeling that he’ll be extended to something like 2 years/$8-10M. But there are several shorstops in free agency that are also known as great glovemen who would cost a fraction of Wilson’s $8.4M 2010 option, and probably less than his discounted extension.

Adam Everett, Omar Vizquel and Alex Gonzalez are among them. All three have their shortcomings, but Everett and Vizquel can be had for less than $2M and Gonzalez wouldn’t cost much more. I’d take jack over any of those guys in a vacuum, but if the money saved can be used to upgrade another spot in the lineup then a slight downgrade could be worthwhile.

One Day International Betting: India v Australia, Round Two.

The first one day international between India and Australia produced a last over thriller and a fine advertisement for the fify over format. Andrew Hughes looks ahead to the second match of the series at Nagpur on Wednesday

Venue and Conditions

The Vidarbha Cricket Stadium is a new venue for one-day internationals, although it has hosted a Test match between these two sides and six domestic games have been played there this year. There is not much data to go on, but it is worth noting that the recent NKP Salve Challenge Trophy was played on this ground and in four day-night matches, the team batting second came out on top three times. That suggests chasing under lights here is not a problem, possibly because of the dew that makes it hard for fielders and bowlers to grip the ball. During the final of that tournament India Blue were skittled out for 84 and the average first innings total was just 226 so can probably expect some assistance for the bowlers.

Team News

India will be pleased to see star batsman Yuvraj Singh return to the team after his finger injury with Virat Kohli the most likely player to step aside. Munaf Patel has been in good form domestically but Ishant Sharma and Asish Nehra did well in the first game at Vadodara and although Praveen Kumar was expensive, his belligerent 40 not out nearly won the game for India, so it would be harsh if he were dropped.

Australia, already without Michael Clarke, Brad Haddin and Nathan Bracken have further injury problems. James Hopes is definitely out with a hamstring problem and more significantly, both Brett Lee (elbow) and Mitchell Johnson (ankle strain) are facing late fitness tests. Ben Hilfenhaus and Doug Bollinger would be the bowling replacements, with opening batsman Shaun Marsh another option, though if he does play, he is likely to be asked to bat down the order.

Match Odds

Australia had the first game sewn up until Praveen Kumar and Harbhajan Singh plundered some late runs and nearly snatched it. You could therefore argue that these teams are fairly closely matched and the injury problems for Australia, combined with the return of Yuvraj Singh could just give India the edge. The home side are currently 2.0 with the visitors on 1.98 but it is worth waiting to see whether Johnson and Lee are fit enough to play, because if they don't India's price could shorten significantly.

That said the Indians will need to raise their game, particularly in the batting department. Yet again, the star-studded line-up failed to sparkle and became bogged down in the middle overs, thanks to some excellent bowling from Lee and Peter Siddle. By contrast, Australia managed a solid team effort and it was only some dubious bowling tactics by Shane Watson that gave India a chance to get back into the game.

Top Batsman

On paper, it might appear that we are spoilt for choice with the Indian line-up, but in reality, few of them are in form. The most consistent Indian batsman in recent times has been Gautam Gambhir and it was his innings of 68 that held the run-chase in Vadodara together. He is worth backing at 4.5 or better.

For Australia, the choice is harder. Ricky Ponting, Tim Paine, Michael Hussey and Cameron White were all amongst the runs in the first game and it is possible to make a case for all of them in the top batsman market. However, with Paine and White playing in India for the first time, it is probably better to side with experience and now that he has rediscovered his touch, you could do worse than back the run-hungry Michael Hussey at 5.0 or better.

Featured Market

Virender Sehwag and Sachin Tendulkar versus Tim Paine and Shane Watson. If this were tag team wrestling, we might have a close fight on our hands. But when it comes to cricket there is no contest in this battle of the openers. Back India in the 'Top Opening Partnership' market at 1.9 or better.

World Cup Betting: Who should be on the plane to South Africa .

There's a while to go and injuries and form will inevitably have a role to play but Paul Moon knows who would be on the plane to South Africa if he was Fabio Capello. Michael Owen doesn't make the cut.

Historically the English media over-estimate the home nation's chances of winning a trophy and the 2010 World Cup will be no exception. Hype must not be allowed to gloss over areas of grave concern.

The first eleven almost pick themselves but within the nature of a tournament, squad deployment, along with fitness and tactics, become vital. Irrespective of form, there are certainties for the plane in David James, Glen Johnson, John Terry, Rio Ferdinand, Ashley Cole, Wayne Bridge, Gareth Barry, David Beckham, Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard, Joe Cole, Jermaine Jenas, Owen Hargreaves and Wayne Rooney.

English goalkeeping is at an all-time low! Rationale indicates you cannot win a major trophy without a decent keeper. Despite his propensity to commit aberrations between the sticks and gift goals, David James stands clear of his challengers and this shows the value of our depleted stock. Paul Robinson and Robert Green are probably deserving of the other goalkeeping spots in the squad.

England's chances would be significantly improved if Micah Richards, frozen out by Fabio Capello, could rediscover the phenomenal form of his first few games for England. They would further be improved if the dodgy knees of Ledley King could last a couple of games within the tournament. Alas, this will not happen meaning Wes Brown, Joleon Lescott and Mathew Upson will dilute the quality of the defence. Hopefully Gary Neville will not be required.

International football tournaments demand fitness, intelligence, ball retention and passing ability and the squad should reflect this. Whilst you can carry an artisan or a poacher, carrying a gaggle of lightweights is somewhat different. The blind alley boys Shaun Wright-Phillips and Theo Walcott lack the necessary ingenuity, craft and guile and are totally unable to produce a decent final ball. They should stay home to reflect on their short-comings with Michael Carrick and Stewart Downing, who both lack real conviction.

High energy, low quality also applies to Aaron Lennon but his blistering pace is a nightmare for full-backs and he might be useful in a bit-part capacity. He should share the right side of midfield duties with Beckham (15 caps in 18 matches under the tenure of Capello) who may also be asked to cover the centre of midfield when necessary. Ashley Young is upwardly mobile, quick and with a good delivery meaning he can ask different questions to those Joe Cole will pose on the left side of midfield. The versatile, honest and energetic James Milner is able to cross with either foot so adds an extra option to the squad based on the fact he can play on either wing and already has an understanding with Villa team-mates Gabriel Agbonlahor and Ashley Young and former Villain Gareth Barry.

The delirium associated with Heskey is grossly misplaced. Seven goals in 57 games is a paltry return while silly mutterings about him being unselfish means zilch in the final analysis. Peter Crouch should take his place - he is the second best striker in the squad with 18 goals in 35 appearances. Jermain Defoe and Gabriel Agbonlahor offer variance and because of the goals from midfield, there would be no need for a fifth striker. If an extra striker were deemed necessary then Carlton Cole would be the best bet but probably at the expense of Young. Regretfully, natural goalscorer Michael Owen can no longer be trusted to prove his fitness and injured players are no use to anyone over a league season, let alone at major tournaments where the permitted size of squad is smaller.

While it is both trite and hypothetical to say that if England had a world class goalkeeper and the hardcore stayed fit they would be genuine contenders, it is probably true. Reality suggests that the keeping department, combined with the lack in depth and mental strength, will scupper their chances.

Now is not the time to look to young guns. Capello will continue to organise and hone within the players recently used and the latest Betfair prices show: Brazil 6.0 Spain 6.0 England 7.8 Argentina (10.5] Germany 14.0 Italy 16.5 Holland 17.0 Portugal 23.0 France 24.0. England will probably just fall short and Argentina will self-destruct so Spain (if they can deal with the added pressure of being European Champions) looks great odds to make it a tournament win double. A saver on Brazil is always advised.

My proposed squad - James, Robinson, Green, Johnson, Ashley Cole, Bridge, Terry, Ferdinand, Upson, Lescott, Brown, Barry, Lampard, Beckham, Gerrard, Joe Cole, Young, Lennon, Crouch, Rooney, Carlton Cole, Agbonlahor, Defoe.

Premier League Betting: A weekend of missed opportunities.

Ralph Ellis tells us about a number of missed betting opportunities of his own and a number of missed opportunities for the likes of Everton, Manchester City, Man Utd and Tottenham. All of which have allowed Chelsea to re-establish themselves as the team to beat.

For me, it was a weekend of missed opportunities. It started when I forgot to put a few pounds of my own on Steve Staunton's choice of charity bet for the Betfair Big Interview, and The Grey One duly came home in the 5.40 at Wolverhampton at 9.6. It carried on when I kept thinking how 3.1 for Liverpool to win a home match was incredible value but didn't actually back it. And then, being a West Ham fan, I contemplated a loyal bet by laying Arsenal at 1.05

when they were 2-0 up at half time at Upton Park, but decided it wasn't worth wasting a fiver even though it would have won a hundred quid.

At least I wasn't on my own. Missed opportunities was the theme right through the Barclays Premier League as only Chelsea took their chance to make some headway by thrashing Blackburn 5-0. Joe Cole's return to the starting side was the key, giving Carlo Ancelotti's team, now 2.54 title favourites, a bit more invention and craft. The result left Blackburn drifting towards trouble, but it's funny how it never appears to be the fault of Sam Allardyce when anything goes wrong. He explained the heavy loss on his players ignoring his game plan. Just one point above the bottom, three they should be far shorter than 9.8 to be relegated.

Sir Alex Ferguson is another who always has somebody else to blame, and in his case it was, surprise, surprise, the referee. Andre Marriner got the big decisions spot-on, but Fergie still tried to focus attention away from his own team's problems. Antonio Valencia is a decent player but he's not Cristiano Ronaldo, and United don't have that bit of dazzle and invention that Cole might be bringing back to Chelsea. That's why they missed their chance to go back to the top of the table.

Sunderland's Steve Bruce summed up the problems that everybody else suffered - the difficulty for players who can raise their game against the biggest opposition to hit the same standards against the minnows. His team didn't turn up for the first hour at Birmingham and ended up losing 2-1, even though Darren Bent might have rescued them an undeserved point in the final minute.

"You think it's going well and then we throw in an hour like we did today," he said. "For all of us trying to catch up, we don't have the history and tradition that supports the big boys. They are used to hitting the top standard every week and it's the biggest challenge for everybody else to find that consistency."

Manchester City didn't. Two goals up and cruising against Fulham they took their foot off the gas and ended up getting only one point. It suggests they shouldn't be as short as 1.7 to be winner without the big four. That said, Aston Villa, the other club looking to gatecrash the top places, even took the lead with 11 minutes left only for Steve Sidwell to give away a penalty four minutes later for a 1-1 draw.

At least they didn't wreck their chance as badly as Tottenham. I recommended laying Spurs for a top six finish at 1.89 last week and you could see why as they were well below par losing 1-0 at home to Stoke. Again you suspect Harry Redknapp's side thought they only needed to turn up against one of the less fashionable clubs. Oddly enough it makes them sensational value at 6.0 to win at Arsenal next Saturday when they will be at their best!

The price for a new top four at the end of the season, as short as 1.5 last week, is moving back towards even money. Everton, fifth the last two seasons, won't be the ones to break up the monopoly. They missed their chances too as they lost 3-2 at Bolton.

At the bottom, Hull and Portsmouth would both have wanted a win and instead got a 0-0 draw. Hull are now clear 3.2 favourite to finish rock bottom, with Pompey 4.0, but doubts over the real financial clout of Fratton Park's new owners, and just four points from ten games and only one of those against the big four, suggest Paul Hart's team are the most likely to stay rooted to the foot of the table. All season they've played promising football but never turned it into goals. It's a stark reminder to us all that opportunities are there to be taken!