Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Premier League Betting: A weekend of missed opportunities.

Ralph Ellis tells us about a number of missed betting opportunities of his own and a number of missed opportunities for the likes of Everton, Manchester City, Man Utd and Tottenham. All of which have allowed Chelsea to re-establish themselves as the team to beat.

For me, it was a weekend of missed opportunities. It started when I forgot to put a few pounds of my own on Steve Staunton's choice of charity bet for the Betfair Big Interview, and The Grey One duly came home in the 5.40 at Wolverhampton at 9.6. It carried on when I kept thinking how 3.1 for Liverpool to win a home match was incredible value but didn't actually back it. And then, being a West Ham fan, I contemplated a loyal bet by laying Arsenal at 1.05

when they were 2-0 up at half time at Upton Park, but decided it wasn't worth wasting a fiver even though it would have won a hundred quid.

At least I wasn't on my own. Missed opportunities was the theme right through the Barclays Premier League as only Chelsea took their chance to make some headway by thrashing Blackburn 5-0. Joe Cole's return to the starting side was the key, giving Carlo Ancelotti's team, now 2.54 title favourites, a bit more invention and craft. The result left Blackburn drifting towards trouble, but it's funny how it never appears to be the fault of Sam Allardyce when anything goes wrong. He explained the heavy loss on his players ignoring his game plan. Just one point above the bottom, three they should be far shorter than 9.8 to be relegated.

Sir Alex Ferguson is another who always has somebody else to blame, and in his case it was, surprise, surprise, the referee. Andre Marriner got the big decisions spot-on, but Fergie still tried to focus attention away from his own team's problems. Antonio Valencia is a decent player but he's not Cristiano Ronaldo, and United don't have that bit of dazzle and invention that Cole might be bringing back to Chelsea. That's why they missed their chance to go back to the top of the table.

Sunderland's Steve Bruce summed up the problems that everybody else suffered - the difficulty for players who can raise their game against the biggest opposition to hit the same standards against the minnows. His team didn't turn up for the first hour at Birmingham and ended up losing 2-1, even though Darren Bent might have rescued them an undeserved point in the final minute.

"You think it's going well and then we throw in an hour like we did today," he said. "For all of us trying to catch up, we don't have the history and tradition that supports the big boys. They are used to hitting the top standard every week and it's the biggest challenge for everybody else to find that consistency."

Manchester City didn't. Two goals up and cruising against Fulham they took their foot off the gas and ended up getting only one point. It suggests they shouldn't be as short as 1.7 to be winner without the big four. That said, Aston Villa, the other club looking to gatecrash the top places, even took the lead with 11 minutes left only for Steve Sidwell to give away a penalty four minutes later for a 1-1 draw.

At least they didn't wreck their chance as badly as Tottenham. I recommended laying Spurs for a top six finish at 1.89 last week and you could see why as they were well below par losing 1-0 at home to Stoke. Again you suspect Harry Redknapp's side thought they only needed to turn up against one of the less fashionable clubs. Oddly enough it makes them sensational value at 6.0 to win at Arsenal next Saturday when they will be at their best!

The price for a new top four at the end of the season, as short as 1.5 last week, is moving back towards even money. Everton, fifth the last two seasons, won't be the ones to break up the monopoly. They missed their chances too as they lost 3-2 at Bolton.

At the bottom, Hull and Portsmouth would both have wanted a win and instead got a 0-0 draw. Hull are now clear 3.2 favourite to finish rock bottom, with Pompey 4.0, but doubts over the real financial clout of Fratton Park's new owners, and just four points from ten games and only one of those against the big four, suggest Paul Hart's team are the most likely to stay rooted to the foot of the table. All season they've played promising football but never turned it into goals. It's a stark reminder to us all that opportunities are there to be taken!


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